Pride and Exam Results - lessons from our first set of GCSEs, no 1: "nobody knows nothing"

IT is a truth universally acknowledged, that a free school head in possession of exam results must be in want of a blog to explain the reasons for their incredible success.

However... this is not one of those posts.

A week on from Results Day, whenever I have talked through everything with people, two points keep pushing their way to the front of my mind:

1) we did alright in the end in terms of attainment (top of the town & second in our LA in terms of 5A*-C inc. E&M), and really well in terms of progress, but I can't stop focusing on those that didn't do as well as we'd hoped (for instance, 9 kids missed out on the "magic 5" by one subject & fewer than 3 marks - that's >10% of our cohort);

2) truthfully, during the long wait for results, we had no idea how we had done; if results had been 67% or 47%, as opposed to 57%, we wouldn't have been completely surprised (although obviously we would have been delighted with the former & heart broken with the latter. * )

Me, discussing forecast
grades with governors

If I'm honest, it's all left me feeling somewhat flat. (I wasn't expecting euphoria - but was hoping for more of a sense of relief than I'm experiencing so far!)

I know that a big part of this is just me being me. I also know that there was the fact that I/we felt under particular pressures as these were our first results, and one of the first for free schools.

But forget my irrelevant feelings. I've made a conscious effort to talk to other Heads this past week, and read as many related articles and blogs elsewhere too, and this seems to be a relatively common response. Anticlimax abounds. Is this really the case amongst Heads and other teachers - or just my reading of things?

Here in Bedford results remained flat compared to last year and undoubtedly too low for anyone's liking - and this certainly wasn't for want of colleagues trying their best to rebound from last year's large falls.

The LA average was 51.9%. Strip out the two big village schools and I calculate the town average to be roughly 44%. I don't know how other schools' outcomes compare to their forecasts, so can't say if this is what was expected.

Anyway, what is the first lesson I'm drawing from our results?

I think it is this: right now I reckon that "nobody knows nothing." With all the changes working their way through English education right now - and I think they are nearly all necessary - the volatility within the system is going to make students' outcomes (and teachers' lives) pretty unpredictable.

There were some amazing results at BFS across a whole bunch of subjects. My school came out on the "right" side of it this time around. But will we next time?

Even with our all-important first set of results out of the way now, seeing what is going on elsewhere hasn't half left me nervous about next summer already!

Whilst we landed roughly where we thought we would this time, and forecast a big jump next year, I'm no longer sure we can say that last bit with any great security. So the nerves I've felt for the past 6 months, which I thought were just a first time freakout, haven't dissipated yet. I think I am going to start the new year as anxious as I finished the last... 


(* = Don't get me wrong - we had an internal forecast of 60%, and a range that we thought we'd be in, but it was massive: when asked by people how we'd do, I'd say "somewhere between 45% and 65%.)