Couldn't resist checking another area...

...and it seems that my gut was correct: the NUT claim about school places in Central Bedfordshire was based on them not understanding the classification of middle schools. 

The data actually shows that, without additional capacity, both the primary and secondary age ranges will end up with a shortage of places.

A spreadsheet with the numbers can be found here - if I have made any errors, please let me know in the comments below.

A couple of charts to sum it up are here:

  

Don't get me wrong - there is a legitimate debate to be had about where free schools go and on what basis the DfE should approve them. But if the NUT are going to make a contribution to this important policy discussion then I feel that it's important that they check their facts before wading in. Assuming I've got the numbers right, then they didn't do that on this occasion.